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gregory@kush.comPonte Vedra Real Estate Market Update 4/1
April 1, 2012While a week ago the news articles about housing were universally positive, this past week there were a number of negative stories. Such is the nature of data analysis and the mainstream media.
The fear properties in various stages of foreclosure and delinquency will continue to roil the market is on the rise. We are not terribly concerned though; the attenuating factor being foreclosed and delinquent properties are a well-vetted, well-understood variable. More importantly, it is an improving variable. Data from CoreLogic show that faster REO-clearing rates and improving employment and low mortgage lending rates point to a sustained housing-market recovery.
In our opinion, frustratingly low appraisals and too-stringent lending standards are more pressing issues for many buyers and sellers. Loosening the tethers on both, and particularly the latter, would go a long way toward keeping the recovery on course.
Locally we continue to see very positive activity. In Ponte Vedra Beach 53 single-family homes went “Pending” in the past four weeks compared to only 33 during the same time period a year ago. We have not seen 53 contracts solidified in a four week interval since June of 2005! And the five year average for this four week interval is only 27 contracts. A contract becomes “Pending” when all contingencies (e.g. inspections, financing) have been removed. Typically the closing will then take place within 30 to 45 days.
Mortgage interest rates were pretty much unchanged this week. Thirty-year fixed rate conforming mortgages eased to an average of 4.14% in the Jacksonville area, down from 4.15% the previous week. APR’s on thirty-year fixed rate jumbo mortgages fell to 4.67%, down from 4.70% a week earlier. Information on rates from individual lenders can be seen at Jacksonville Mortgages – Topix.
Posted in Ponte Vedra Real Estate Market | Comments Off
Southeast Jacksonville Real Estate Market Update 4/1
April 1, 2012While a week ago the news articles about housing were universally positive, this past week there were a number of negative stories. Such is the nature of data analysis and the mainstream media.
The fear properties in various stages of foreclosure and delinquency will continue to roil the market is on the rise. We are not terribly concerned though; the attenuating factor being foreclosed and delinquent properties are a well-vetted, well-understood variable. More importantly, it is an improving variable. Data from CoreLogic show that faster REO-clearing rates and improving employment and low mortgage lending rates point to a sustained housing-market recovery.
In our opinion, frustratingly low appraisals and too-stringent lending standards are more pressing issues for many buyers and sellers. Loosening the tethers on both, and particularly the latter, would go a long way toward keeping the recovery on course.
Locally we continue to see very positive activity. In Southeast Jacksonville 65 single-family homes went “Pending” in the past four weeks compared to 50 during the same time period a year ago. And the five year average for this four week interval is only 36 contracts. A contract becomes “Pending” when all contingencies (e.g. inspections, financing, lien holder approval, etc.) have been removed. Typically the closing will then take place within 30 to 45 days.
Mortgage interest rates were pretty much unchanged this week. Thirty-year fixed rate conforming mortgages eased to an average of 4.14% in the Jacksonville area, down from 4.15% the previous week. APR’s on thirty-year fixed rate jumbo mortgages fell to 4.67%, down from 4.70% a week earlier. Information on rates from individual lenders can be seen at Jacksonville Mortgages – Topix.
Posted in Southeast Jacksonville Real Estate Market | Comments OffPonte Vedra Real Estate Market Update 3/25
March 25, 2012Again this week the national news about the housing market was generally positive. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecast released Thursday stated “Prices are bottoming now.”
In the fall, the analysts had predicted home prices would drop by 8 percent from the second quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2013 — but now they’re revising that forecast, realizing the housing market is stabilizing faster than they originally thought.
Their analysts now predict that prices will remain flat for the next two years, as the excess foreclosure inventory is absorbed. They then expect to see a pickup in home prices by 2014.
Source: “Home Prices ‘Bottoming Now,’ BofA Merrill Lynch Analysts Say,” HousingWire (March 22, 2012)
We continue to see pricing stabilization here in Northeast Florida and sales continue to be strong. In Ponte Vedra Beach 48 single-family homes went “Pending” in the past four weeks compared to only 34 during the same time period a year ago. And the five year average for this four week interval is only 27 contracts. A contract becomes “Pending” when all contingencies (e.g. inspections, financing) have been removed. Typically the closing will then take place within 30 to 45 days.
Mortgage interest rates eased this week. Thirty-year fixed rate conforming mortgages dropped to an average of 4.15% in the Jacksonville area, down from 4.18% the previous week. APR’s on thirty-year fixed rate jumbo mortgages fell to 4.70%, down from 4.80% a week earlier. Information on rates from individual lenders can be seen at Jacksonville Mortgages – Topix.
Posted in Ponte Vedra Real Estate Market | Comments OffSoutheast Jacksonville Real Estate Market Update 3/25
March 25, 2012Again this week the national news about the housing market was generally positive. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecast released Thursday stated “Prices are bottoming now.”
In the fall, the analysts had predicted home prices would drop by 8 percent from the second quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2013 — but now they’re revising that forecast, realizing the housing market is stabilizing faster than they originally thought.
Their analysts now predict that prices will remain flat for the next two years, as the excess foreclosure inventory is absorbed. They then expect to see a pickup in home prices by 2014.
Source: “Home Prices ‘Bottoming Now,’ BofA Merrill Lynch Analysts Say,” HousingWire (March 22, 2012)
We continue to see pricing stabilization here in Northeast Florida and sales continue to be strong. In Southeast Jacksonville 64 single-family homes went “Pending” in the past four weeks compared to only 45 during the same time period a year ago. And the five year average for this four week interval is 35 contracts. A contract becomes “Pending” when all contingencies (e.g. inspections, financing, lien holder approval, etc.) have been removed. Typically the closing will then take place within 30 to 45 days.
Mortgage interest rates eased this week. Thirty-year fixed rate conforming mortgages dropped to an average of 4.15% in the Jacksonville area, down from 4.18% the previous week. APR’s on thirty-year fixed rate jumbo mortgages fell to 4.70%, down from 4.80% a week earlier. Information on rates from individual lenders can be seen at Jacksonville Mortgages – Topix.
Posted in Southeast Jacksonville Real Estate Market | Comments OffHousing Market Reaches Turning Point, Economists Say
March 20, 2012It is comforting to have ones opinions validated. As followers will attest, I have been saying for months that the market is recovering. Sales are up but prices are slightly declining to flat. And I expect the prices will remain essentially flat for the next two years. After that, appreciation will return but is expected to be modest, in the 2% to 3% range.
Daily Real Estate News | Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Economists say the housing market is starting to heal, but too many people aren’t aware of it because they’re judging a housing recovery on the wrong sign: What’s happening with home prices.
Paul Dales at Capital Economics says higher prices won’t be the sign that the housing market is on the mend — that can be a lagging indicator — but rather an increase in overall home sales. And that’s showing signs of improvement: Existing home sales in 2011 rose to 4.26 million compared to 4.19 million in 2010. In the last six months alone, home sales have increased 13 percent.
As a recent article at Fortune points out, “The evidence reminds us that perhaps we should change our expectations of what a housing recovery might look like, particularly following a crisis marked by record foreclosures and a financial crisis that sent the economy into one of the deepest recessions. The recovery we have been anticipating is defined more on the rate at which the glut of vacant properties comes off the market as opposed to any steady rise in prices, which some think won’t happen for another few years.”
Posted in Ponte Vedra Real Estate Market, Southeast Jacksonville Real Estate Market | Comments OffPonte Vedra Real Estate Market Update 3/18
March 18, 2012The news this week continued to be very positive. Nationally a number of outlets reported price gains in numerous market areas. Consumer sentiment also continues to improve both nationally and in the state of Florida. Locally we observed several price adjustments upward and multiple lots going under contract. These are all good signs of a recovering housing market.
To get a quantitative feel whether the market is strengthening, sagging or stable we track the number of new contracts written each week. In Ponte Vedra Beach 46 single-family homes went “Pending” (with all contingencies removed) during the past four weeks. That is a huge number! A year ago only 32 houses went under contract during the same time span. The five year average for this four week interval is a mere 28 contracts. A contract becomes “Pending” when all contingencies (e.g. inspections, financing, lien holder approval, etc.) have been removed. Typically the closing will then take place within 30 days.
Mortgage interest rates rose significantly this past week. Thirty-year fixed rate conforming mortgages rose to an average of 4.18% in the Jacksonville area, up from 4.12% the previous week. APR’s on thirty-year fixed rate jumbo mortgages jumped to 4.80%, up from 4.60% a week earlier. We report only annual percentage rates (APR’s) for mortgage loans which includes the points and fees associated with getting the teaser rates advertised by the lenders. Information on rates from individual lenders can be seen at Jacksonville Mortgages – Topix.
Posted in Ponte Vedra Real Estate Market | Comments OffSoutheast Jacksonville Real Estate Market Update 3/18
March 18, 2012The news this week continued to be very positive. Nationally a number of outlets reported price gains in numerous market areas. Consumer sentiment also continues to improve both nationally and in the state of Florida. Locally we observed several price adjustments upward and multiple lots going under contract.
To get a feel whether the market is strengthening, sagging or stable we track the number of new contracts written each week. In Southeast Jacksonville 71 single-family homes went “Pending” (with all contingencies removed) during the past four weeks. That is a huge number! A year ago only 40 houses went under contract during the same time span. The five year average for this four week interval is a mere 33 contracts. A contract becomes “Pending” when all contingencies (e.g. inspections, financing, lien holder approval, etc.) have been removed. Typically the closing will then take place within 30 days.
Mortgage interest rates rose significantly this past week. Thirty-year fixed rate conforming mortgages rose to an average of 4.18% in the Jacksonville area, up from 4.12% the previous week. APR’s on thirty-year fixed rate jumbo mortgages jumped to 4.80%, up from 4.60% a week earlier. We report only annual percentage rates (APR’s) for mortgage loans which includes the points and fees associated with getting the teaser rates advertised by the lenders. Information on rates from individual lenders can be seen at Jacksonville Mortgages – Topix.
Posted in Southeast Jacksonville Real Estate Market | Comments OffGovernment Trims Half of Its Foreclosure Inventory
March 13, 2012As I have talked about the pace of sales continuing to strengthen and prices showing stabilization, I have continued to express concern about the number of distressed properties that still need to be absorbed. The following article mitigates some of those concerns.
Daily Real Estate News | Monday, March 12, 2012
The government was able to chip away at its foreclosure inventory in 2011, reducing it by nearly half, HousingWire reports in analyzing financial statements from three government enterprises.
From the end of 2010 to 2011, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development saw a 49 percent reduction in the number of REO properties it owns. The three government enterprises held about 150,700 properties as of Dec. 31, 2011, compared to 296,000 at the end of 2010.
“The GSEs sold REOs at a record pace in 2011,” HousingWire reports. “Combined, both sold more than 353,000 previously foreclosed property for the year.”
Here’s a closer look by how much the government enterprises trimmed their foreclosure inventories:
• HUD: Reduced its foreclosure inventory to about 32,000, a 47 percent drop from more than 62,000 it held at the end of 2010.
• Fannie: Reduced its foreclosure inventory to more than 118,000, which is down 27 percent from about 162,000 at the end of 2010.
• Freddie: Reduced its REO inventory to 60,500, down 16 percent from more than 72,000 in 2010.
3.8% Tax Rumor On Home Sales Keeps Spreading
March 13, 2012Contrary to a viral email that seems to die out but then return with a vengeance, there is no across-the-board real estate tax starting in 2013.
There is a new real estate tax effective in 2013, but it will affect very few sellers – only people with a high annual income who turn a sizable profit on their home sale.
A 3.8 percent levy on certain investment income was included in healthcare legislation two years ago. Part of that investment income includes capital gains from home sales for individuals who make $200,000 per year or more, or married couples who earn at least $250,000. However, even these individuals won’t pay the tax unless the home sale earns them over $250,000 for an individual or $500,000 for married couples. And even if someone qualifies under these two conditions, a tax may still not be levied. Other tax details are considered before the 3.8 percent tax kicks in.
The tax details are complicated. The actual tax due will vary from individual to individual because the elements used to calculate “adjusted gross income” differ from taxpayer to taxpayer. Consult your accountant to determine what impact if any the new tax will have on you and your family.
NAR has published a brochure on how the tax works, which is now available online. Download the 3.8% tax brochure (PDF).
Posted in Fact or Fiction in Real Estate, Real Estate Alerts, Taxes and Real Estate | Comments OffPonte Vedra Real Estate Market Update 3/10
March 11, 2012The news keeps getting better. The pace of sales continues to strengthen and inventory levels remain about half what they were five years ago. We are also seeing the frequency and magnitude of price reductions diminish as home prices stabilize. Of course we still have a large number of distressed properties to absorb and that is expected to keep a lid on appreciation for several more years.
Is now the time to buy? Certainly Warren Buffet thinks so. Take a look at his recent comments on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” where he said that he would like to buy several hundred thousand homes if it were practical.
To get a feel whether the market is strengthening, sagging or stable we track the number of new contracts written each week. In Ponte Vedra Beach 43 single-family homes went “Pending” (with all contingencies removed) during the past four weeks. A year ago only 36 houses went under contract during the same time span. The five year average for this four week interval is 29 contracts. A contract becomes “Pending” when all contingencies (e.g. inspections, financing, lien holder approval, etc.) have been removed. Typically the closing will then take place within 30 days.
Thirty-year fixed rate conforming mortgages edged up this week to an average of 4.12% in the Jacksonville area, up from 4.11% the previous week. APR’s on thirty-year fixed rate jumbo mortgages rose to 4.60%, up from 4.54% a week earlier. Mortgage rates have been largely steady and have fluctuated only slightly while remaining near historical lows for the past several months. Incidentally, we report only annual percentage rates (APR’s) for mortgage loans which includes the points and fees associated with getting the teaser rates advertised by the lenders. Information on rates from individual lenders can be seen at Jacksonville Mortgages – Topix.
Posted in Ponte Vedra Real Estate Market | Comments Off ← Older posts Newer posts →